Storage, Production and Low Demand Keeping Natural Gas Prices in Check!
The NYMEX winter strip (Dec 2019-Mar 2020) dropped 16 cents over the trading dates of November 18th & 19th. The average price for the winter strip on 11/19/19 posted at $2.513/MMBtu. One year ago, the winter NYMEX strip averaged $4.351/MMBtu.
Daily index prices also fell during the past several trading periods. Mid-continent daily index prices averaged $1.66/MMBtu. NGPL traded for $0.62/MMBtu on 11/20/19. The average daily index price for the mid-continent on November 20, 2018 was $4.298/MMBtu.
Drivers for seeing lower winter prices include storage inventory levels, record production and falling demand. Going into the storage withdraw season (November 1st), storage levels were at a 15% surplus to year-ago levels. Natural gas production continues to hit new highs. Per Platts, total dry gas production has averaged 92.2 Bcf/d in November so far, up 5.4 Bcf compared to the levels observed during the same time last year. Demand has also dropped off, largely driven by declines in gas usage for power generation. With weather being mild across most of the U.S., demand for heat load has not yet played a factor in pricing.
